Lesson Main Question: How can we use scientific models to reduce infection and mortality on the Mars base?
Lesson Title: The Martian Epidemic! (90 min)
Student Section
The Story so Far
12 years have gone by. The ESA base has not yet been built because of lack of funding. However, mr. Tusk has overtaken the scientists and established a base on one of the recommended sites on Mars!
But something has gone wrong. It turns out that the privately employed scientists that are stuck on Mars have brought a deadly virus with them. They are going to need some help – and quickly!
As leading scientists working for the ESA, you need to work together in order to send guidelines and predictions to the Mars base quickly enough.
The General director of ESA has sent you an assignment. Read it here: Assignment from the General Director of ESA.
Identifying the Parameters
Come up with a list of parameters which might affect the spread and the impact of the virus.
Simulating the Epidemic
Each group is in charge of investigating a different parameter, keeping the rest of the parameters constant, using the simulation. Find out what parameter to focus on in collaboration with the chief scientist.
Remember the general director has asked for scientifically based predictions and guidelines.
– How do you think changing the parameter will change the evolution of the pandemic?
– Test out the simulation – make sure you understand how it works and what the data tells you. Use scientific words like: model, rate, probability per tick.
– Investigate how changing the parameter changes the evolution of the pandemic. Use scientific words like: parameter dependence, uncertainty, stability, feedback.
– Prepare to present your findings to the rest of the team. Find inspiration in “Findings Explanation” and the rubric for peer feedback.
The data can be downloaded as a .csv-file, which can be opened in Microsoft Excel or a similar program. Create a small presentation explaining what you have found out.
Findings Explanation
Present your discoveries to the rest of the team. What have you found out using the simulation? What can this tell you about how to handle the epidemic on the Mars Base?
Give feedback to the other groups using the rubric for peer feedback.
Work Out Guidelines and Predictions
Partake in a discussion with the chief scientist, where you sum up your findings and predictions to answer the assignment from the general director of the ESA.
Teacher Section
Description of Lesson
The narrative begins with a shock: 10-15 years have gone by. The ESA base has not yet been built because of lack of funding. However, mr. Tusk has overtaken the scientists and established a base on one of the recommended sites!
But something has gone wrong. It turns out that the privately employed scientists that are stuck on Mars have brought a deadly virus with them. They are going to need some help – and quickly!
The students need to work together in order to send scientifically based guidelines and predictions to the Mars base quickly enough.
Note: We have given suggestions for the duration of each of of the activities below. These suggestions are based on a students completing the lesson in 90 minutes. Depending on your goals and the class, you may want to expand on these suggestions for duration. Some classes may benefit from more time to do Activity 3: Simulating the Epidemic. If so, you can split the lesson in two and have students either work on it for the remaining hour of the lesson and/or have them work on it as homework and finish the lesson another day. Both strategies will likely demand more than 90 minutes.
Materials List for Lesson
Activity 1: The Story so Far
Start the lesson by presenting The Assignment from the General Director of ESA.
You can include the Letter from the General Director of ESA in your presentation, or let the students read it themselves.
In this lesson, you can take the role of a senior or chief scientist. You can, for example, tell your students that your goal is for them to do good experiments, draw the best possible conclusions, and present your results in a comprehensible manner to the General director of ESA.
Address any questions from students.
Suggested time for this activity: 5 minutes.
Activity 2: Identifying the Parameters of the Epidemic
Divide the students into small groups (~2 students per group) and have them brainstorm things that might have a positive or negative effect on the spread and impact of the virus. Have the class share their brainstorm with each other. You can, for example, write down some of their ideas, and use these for the next activity.
Suggested time for this activity: 10 minutes.
Activity 3: Simulating the Epidemic
Divide the students into larger groups (~4 students per group). Give each group a parameter to focus on – it’s best if these parameters seem to be taken from the students’ brainstorm, but as the simulation is limited, they should be chosen from this list:
Infection rate of alpha virus, death rate of alpha virus, recovery chance from alpha virus, hospital capacity, discovery chance, death rate of beta virus, infection rate of beta virus, recovery chance from beta virus.
Let the groups investigate the simulation on their own, but be available if guidance is needed. Guidance includes helping the students use scientific methods as well as scientific terms like: probability, rate, model, uncertainty, exponential growth, doubling time, parameter dependency, limitations and assumptions. Remind the students that they need to be able to present their findings with the rest of the class.
All groups should look at a population size of 100 people, have recoverable and deadly on, and try with social distancing turned on and off.
Suggested time for this activity: 30 minutes.
Activity 4: Findings Explanation
Have the groups present their findings and assess each other using a rubric. You can do this in different ways: Have each group present for the entire class, or have group-on-group presentations.
To guide students and increase the likelihood of good feedback, you can make use of the rubric for peer feedback. You can download and print it for students, and then let the presenting group get the filled out rubrics.
Suggested duration for this activity: 30 minutes.
Activity 5: Work out Guidelines and Predictions
Lead a plenary discussion, where the students sum up their findings and what they have learned from the other groups. The end result should be the scientifically based guidelines and predictions the General director asked for.
A prompt to get the discussion started could be: “Based on what you have found out today, from brainstorming, working with the simulation, and listening to the other students’ presentations, what could a guideline or prediction be?”
After the guidelines and predictions have been sent to the general director, the class should receive news regarding the new situation on the Mars base. Depending on how well thought out and thorough the students’ work has been today, the news can be good (i.e. no casualties as of yet, and everyone is social distancing) or bad (i.e. the virus has mutated, multiple people are on their deathbeds with no vacancy at the hospital on the base).
Suggested duration for this activity: 15 minutes.
Possible homework assignment
The general director appreciates the efficient work your team has performed today, and the guidelines and predictions have been forwarded. Your team has received news on the situation on the Mars base (per activity 5). Now, taking the new situation into account, the students must work together in their groups and write a report for the general director about how to move forward. If people have died on the base, there is a need for new guidelines. If people are social distancing and everything seem to be going fine, there is a need for a plan to keep working on the base without risking a new outbreak.
Each group should have their own focus (either the same focus as earlier, or perhaps the lead scientist believes the team would benefit from switching focus to enhance innovation) and each report should meet the following requirements:
– Analyze what went wrong / worked well from your guidelines to lead to the current situation on the base. Use scientific words like: exponential growth, probability, model, uncertainty.
– Work out guidelines for the base to move forward.
– Discuss why you have chosen these guidelines, why they might work, and why they might not, based on the data from the simulation.
Intended Learning Outcomes
1. Assess parameters which might affect an epidemic.
2. Assess the model’s limitations.
3. Interpret data collected using a simulation.
4. Communicate and discuss everyday problems using science based arguments.
Expected Products from Lesson
– Student presentations
– Guidelines and predictions